Amidst
stringent opposition campaigns and Burma's political turmoil, the strong-man
of Burma, Senior General Than Shwe (72), was given a red-carpet reception by
the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Indian government.
Including the US government, this reception was viewed as a set back to the
democratization process in Burma by many. The recent political upheaval that
led to the removal of Burma's Prime Minister, General Khin Nyunt,
overshadowed the political whims of the international community.
With the
first visit of Burmese head of state to India in 24 years, a number of
agreements including non-traditional security issues, setting up the Tamanthi hydro-electric project in Burma, and cultural exchange program
(2001-2006) were signed. General Than Shwe, chairman of the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC), led a delegation comprising eight cabinet
ministers from October 24-29.
With as
many as 12 Northeast Indian insurgent groups basing in the Kale Kabaw Valley
in Sagaing Division of Burma, the Indian leadership turns a deaf ear to what
pro-democracy groups say "an illegitimate military regime." With its shrewd
and strategic maneuver, the Congress led United Progressive Alliance Indian
government leaves no stone unturned. They are obsessed with winning the
Burmese military regime's direct or indirect cooperation in ostracizing the
northeast insurgent groups, which is embedded in the agreement
"non-traditional security issues."
In turn,
the Indian government pacifies the Burmese government by green signaling to
set up Tamanthi hydro-electric power. With all or most of today's electrical
system in Burma generated by machine power, Burma has to accept such
benevolent offer from a giant country of having expertise in electrifying
power. Indeed if this project is put into place, diverse ethnic groups of
people in the region – the Burmans, the Shans, the Kachins, the Kukis, the
Nagas, and et al economies will be boosted. Of course, the larger share will
obviously be manipulated by the military regime.
Cultural
exchange program will enhance more or less to both sides of the peoples. Not
only are they neighboring countries, India and Burma share multi cultural
ethos – a large chunk of enriched Burmese businessmen and women are from
India. Burma's second largest city, Mandalay, has overwhelming Indian
population. To narrow down in scope, the Chins, the Kukis, the Meiteis, the
Mizos, the Shans, etc. have spread across the international boundary to be
found in the two countries.
Above all,
Burma consolidates its position by proving to the world that they enjoy the
support of one of the world's largest democratic nation, India. In the focal
point of the Burmese government, this is a tremendous political victory. Not
long after the removal of the then Foreign Minister and Deputy Foreign
Minister, the regime's powerful Prime Minister, General Khin Nyunt, was
ousted in a mischievous circumstance. However, this is no wonder, the
incumbent regime leaders could end up their fates in similar way.
Based on
our theory and analysis, the degree of gains may differ, however, both sides
claim to satisfy with their shares. Time will tell if the diplomatic
relationship of India and the Burmese military regime endures to the end.